Predicting Mortality Prior to Interhospital Hospital for "Unseen" General Surgery Patients: Development, Validation and Feasibility Trial of a Mortality Risk Calculator.

OBJECTIVE: Develop and validate a mortality risk calculator that could be utilized at the time of transfer, leveraging routinely collected variables that could be obtained by trained non-clinical transfer personnel. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: There are no objective tools to predict mortality at the time of inter-hospital transfer for Emergency General Surgery (EGS) patients that are "unseen" by the accepting system. METHODS: Patients transferred to general or colorectal surgery services from January 2016 through August 2022 were retrospectively identified and randomly divided into training and validation cohorts (3:1 ratio). The primary outcome was admission-related mortality, defined as death during the index admission or within 30 days post-discharge. Multiple predictive models were developed and validated. RESULTS: Among 4,664 transferred patients, 280 (6.0%) experienced mortality. Predictive models were generated utilizing 19 routinely collected variables; the penalized regression model was selected over other models due to excellent performance using only 12 variables. The model performance on the validating set resulted in an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, and balanced accuracy of 0.851, 0.90, 0.67, and 0.79, respectively. After bias correction, Brier score was 0.04, indicating a strong association between the assigned risk and the observed frequency of mortality. CONCLUSION: A risk calculator using twelve variables has excellent predictive ability for mortality at the time of interhospital transfer among "unseen" EGS patients. Quantifying a patient's mortality risk at the time of transfer could improve patient triage, bed and resource allocation, and standardize care.

Tumor Size Combined With CA-19 Level Improves Prediction of Survival of Patients With Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma Undergoing Perioperative Chemotherapy and Resection.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Five-year survival in pancreatic adenocarcinoma is less than 20%. While previous studies have postulated that a carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) threshold could predict outcome of resection, the role for CA19-9 in decision-making remains unclear. This study aims to assess whether CA19-9 levels combined with tumor size improve prediction of post-resection survival. METHOD: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 109 patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma who underwent perioperative chemotherapy followed by resection. The primary outcome of mortality was, divided into short (<1 year) or prolonged (>2 years). Univariate and multivariable analyses compared the tumor size-adjusted CA19-9 between the outcome groups. RESULTS: Twenty-seven (24.78%) and eighty-two (75.23%) patients were in the short survival and prolonged-survival groups, respectively. The mean CA19-9 was significantly greater in the short vs prolonged group (P < .001). Analyzing CA19-9 level by tumor size, the association of high CA19-9 and short survival was significant for small (≤2 cm) and large tumor (>4 cm), but not for intermediate-size tumors (2-4 cm). Adjusting for preoperative variable did not change this association. CONCLUSION: CA 19-9 in combination with tumor size better identifies patients with prolonged post-resection survival. This prediction is most accurate in patients with either small (≤2 cms) or large (>4 cms) tumors compared to intermediate-size tumors.

Gender representation in the Central Surgical Association: A call to action.

BACKGROUND: Organizations such as the Central Surgical Association are important for promulgating advances in general surgery, but diversity and inclusion profoundly affect what is presented and discussed. The objective of this study was to evaluate gender representation trends at the Central Surgical Association and its annual meetings over the past 13 years. METHODS: Publicly available Central Surgical Association meeting proceedings from 2010 to 2022 were reviewed for society leaders, new members, invited speakers and moderators, and contributors to scientific sessions (first authors, senior authors). Gender identity was assessed through professional online platforms. The 2017 and 2021 meetings were conjoined with the Midwest Surgical Association. Incomplete data were obtained from 2013 and 2020-2022. RESULTS: A total of 2,158 individuals were reviewed, 554 (25.7%) of which were women. The overall trend of the absolute proportion of women participation increased by 1.8% per year (R2 = 0.7, P < .01). For leadership roles, 42/205 (20%) were women, with a 2.4% per year increase (R2 = 0.45, P = .02). For speaker roles, 82/384 (21.4%) were women, with a 2.2% increase per year (R2 = 0.6, P < .01). For scientific contributions, 253 first (35.9%) and 136 (19.3%) senior authors of 704 were women, with 1.5% (R2 = 0.4, P = .02) and 1.3% (R2 = 0.4, P = .03) increase per year, respectively. CONCLUSION: There has been a positive trend in women's involvement at Central Surgical Association meetings for leaders, speakers, and scientific authors. Diversity allows variate experiences to contribute to surgical advancements; thus, measures by the Central Surgical Association to ensure adequate representation should continue.

Postoperative Day 1 Drain Amylase After Pancreatoduodenectomy: Optimal Level to Predict Pancreatic Fistula.

INTRODUCTION: Drain amylase on day 1 (DA-D1) after pancreaticoduodendectomy (PD) to predict occurrence of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is controversial. In this study, we evaluate the optimal DA-D1 level to predict clinically relevant POPF (CR-POPF). METHODS: The 2014-2020 NSQIP pancreatectomy-targeted database was queried for patients who underwent elective PD. Perioperative data was extracted to determine development of POPF and CR-POPF per International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula guidelines. Receiver operative curve (ROC) and Youden's index were used to assess the performance and optimal cutoff for DA-D1 to predict CR-POPF. The DA-D1 value was confirmed with a multivariable logistic regression to determine hazard ratios (HR) for CR-POPF and conditional logistic regression by modified fistula risk score (mFRS) subgroups. RESULTS: A total of 6,087 patients with complete perioperative data were included. Mean DA-D1 was 2,897 ± 8,636 U/L; median drain duration was 5 days. CR-POPF was documented in 544 (8.9%) patients. DA-D1 ROC for CR-POPF had area under the curve of 0.779 (95%CI 0.759-0.798). Youden's index for the CR-POPF ROC coordinates had 77.6% sensitivity and 66.3% specificity, corresponding to DA-D1 values ≥ 720U/L as an optimal cutoff. CR-POPF was higher for patients with DA-D1 ≥ 720U/L (HR 4.6; p = 0.001). Patients DA-D1 < 720U/L with a negligible, low, intermediate, and high mFRS had respectively 1%, 3%, 4%, and 7% rate of CR-POPF. CONCLUSION: DA-D1 < 720U/L after elective PD is a clinically useful predictor of CR-POPF. For patients with negligible to intermediate FRS, surgeons should consider utilizing DA-D1 < 720 U/L for removal of a drain on the first postoperative day.

Discontinuation of the OriGen® Dual-Lumen Right Atrial Cannula Decreased Venovenous ECMO Usage in Neonates and Older Children: A Survey of the American Pediatric Surgical Association.

INTRODUCTION: Dual-lumen cannulas for venovenous (VV)-ECMO are widely used in pediatric patients. The popular OriGen® dual-lumen right atrial cannula was discontinued in 2019 without a comparable replacement. METHODS: A survey covering VV-ECMO practice and opinions was distributed to attending members of the American Pediatric Surgical Association. RESULTS: 137 pediatric surgeons responded (14%). Prior to discontinuation of the OriGen®, 82.5% offered VV-ECMO to neonates, and 79.6% cannulated with the OriGen®. Following its discontinuation, those that offered only venoarterial (VA)-ECMO to neonates increased to 37.6% from 17.5% (p = 0.0002). An additional 33.8% changed their practice to sometimes use VA-ECMO when VV-ECMO was indicated. Reasons for not incorporating dual-lumen bi-caval cannulation into practice included risk of cardiac injury (51.7%), inexperience with bi-caval cannulation in neonates (36.8%), difficulty with placement (31.0%), and recirculation and/or positioning problems (27.6%). For the pediatric/adolescent population, 95.5% of surgeons offered VV-ECMO prior to OriGen® discontinuation. Few switched to exclusive VA-ECMO (1.9%) when the OriGen® was discontinued, but 17.8% of surgeons began to incorporate selective use of VA-ECMO. CONCLUSION: Discontinuation of the OriGen® cannula drove pediatric surgeons to alter their cannulation practices, dramatically increasing VA-ECMO use for neonatal and pediatric respiratory failure. These data may suggest a need for targeted education accompanying major technological shifts. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level IV.

Biliary Anatomy Quiz: Test Your Knowledge.

One of the most common surgical procedures performed in the USA is the cholecystectomy. Understanding biliary anatomy, which includes the gallbladder and extrahepatic biliary tree, is essential for every general surgeon. This quiz includes clinically relevant anatomy and radiology questions for the current and future surgeon at every level of training, and we hope it will be a useful adjunct to one's review.

Lessons learned and keys to success: Provider experiences during the implementation of virtual oncology tumor boards in the era of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic required rapid adaptation of multidisciplinary tumor board conferences to a virtual setting; however, there are little data describing the benefits and challenges of using such a platform. METHODS: An anonymous quality improvement survey was sent to participants of tumor board meetings at a large academic institution. Participants answered questions pertaining to the relative strengths and weaknesses of in-person and virtual settings. RESULTS: A total of 335 responses (23.3% response rate) were recorded, and 253 met inclusion criteria. Respondents represented 25 different tumor board meetings, with colorectal, breast, and liver (18.6%, 17.0%, and 13.0%, respectively) being the most commonly attended. Virtual tumor boards were equivalent to in-person across 9 of 10 domains queried, while a virtual format was preferred for participation in off-site tumor boards. The lack of networking opportunities was ranked by physicians to be a significant challenge of the virtual format. Consistent leadership and organization, engaged participation of all attendees, and upgrading technology infrastructure were considered critical for success of virtual meetings. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of virtual tumor board meetings has been associated with numerous challenges. However, improving several key aspects can improve participant satisfaction and ensure excellent patient care.

Survival impact based on hepatic artery lymph node status in pancreatic adenocarcinoma: A study of patients receiving modern chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Chemotherapy for pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has significantly improved in recent years. While the involvement of the hepatic artery lymph node (HALN; station 8a lymph node) likely represents advanced disease, a comparison to patients with metastases on modern chemotherapy is lacking. METHODS: Patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy with HALN sent for pathologic review at a single institution from 2003 to 2018 were reviewed. Patients who presented with liver-only metastases at the time of PDAC diagnosis (Stage IV) and received chemotherapy were identified. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression modeling was utilized and overall survival (OS) was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: Of the 112 patients with a HALN sent for analysis, 17 (15%) were positive and 13 (76%) received chemotherapy. Ninety-four stage IV patients were identified and were significantly more likely to have received a multiagent rather than single-agent chemotherapy regimen compared to HALN positive patients (79.8% vs. 38.5%, p < .001). Median OS was significantly longer in all patients who underwent surgical resection, regardless of HALN status, compared to stage IV patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy with HALN positivity have significantly improved OS compared to patients with stage IV disease. HALN involvement does not significantly alter survival among resected patients and does not warrant preoperative endoscopic ultrasound-guided biopsy.